GOOGLE HITS $500 A SHARE; MARKET VALUE $154,570,000,000.00


Google's Stock just hit the roof. Party like it's 1999!

I would have to say that this valuation is obscene in my personal opinion.


Would love right now to see

Would love right now to see a table of highest market caps, along with GOOG's position in terms of revenues/profits by comparison.

Great - another 400 millionaires woke up this morning...

...and, alas, I'm not one of them... :(

When the stock first came out

I thought it would drop down to about $45. Then I thought it would peak at about $100. Etc. Etc.

You have to wonder how it

You have to wonder how it changes the minds of the players at Google. Imagine yourself having taken a job at Google, and now your holdings are in the tens of millions. Honestly, will you stay? If you don't leave because you expect it to go higher, will you take risks?

Thin and Thick Stocks

MSFT and YHOO are "thick" stocks.

Meaning, should you invest in real-time, Level-2 NASDAQ streaming quotes, you would see something along the lines of this:

Bid Ask
27.90 27.91
CBOE 110 150
ARCA 20 30

and similar for MSFT.

However, while any Joe worth his salt can afford 100 MSFT's or 100 YHOO's, both for under $3000, how many in this audience here can afford 100 GOOG's at 50,000? Furthermore, how many of you would invest $3,000 in the hopes that MSFT, once Vista starts rolling in January, February, would increase your investment by a mere, say, $3200 (or several times bank interest)? Seems almost a gimme, right? Now, how many would you like to bet on ever making 53,571 (a comparable increase on investment)?

Put another way: What are the chances of MSFT going completely bust? Very small. What are the chances of YHOO going bust? Not that big. What are the chances of GOOG reaching reasonable limits of ~$80/share? Worth $50,000?

When you look at GOOG on NASDAQ Level 2, you see something like this going on:

Bid Ask
500.00 501.00
CBOE 3 1
ARCA 2 1

Yes, for those that know any thing about Bid/Ask spreads, 50 shares of YHOO wouldn't budget it a cent (you'd have to trade ~250), but just *one* share of GOOG will raise it's price $1. It is an *incredibly* thin stock. How thin? Cisco in March 2000 does not COME CLOSE To being that thin! No one is willing to buy and no one is willing to sell. The second part is why it doesn't collapse on it's own weight at present. Remember, the market is *quite* irrational. There is no "hidden hand" (unless insiders are rigging the options market risking billions of dollars in behind the scenes deals... which I would probably do if I had billions tied up in GOOG.

Look, if you were to take your $50,000 and start liquidating it, you'd NEVER get $50,000 back~! You sell your *first* share, and your remaining stock is worth $49,900 - $499 = 49401, and vice versa. You would seriously have to spread it over the course of, probably, many many days, just to sell 100 shares. And this is *today*.

There are very few gimmicks like S&P 500 entry left to prop up the GOOG; only, really, buying up thousands and thousands of Put contracts, esp. at ridiculously low levels (say, $150- or $250-strike) just so you could buy back your stock and artificially pump the market back up. Indeed, only *suckers* buy GOOG, the real money with this company is in the options market.

Hopeskr pardon me for being

Hopeskr pardon me for being straight forward, but I think you are talking bollocks.

Volume today in Google shares was 4.5 million, or a turnover of 200 million$ (see the chart). Most shares typically trade about 0.1% of market cap in a day and that 4.5 million shares is nearly spot on 0.1%.

If you want to sell your shares go ahead. I doubt you'll be moving the market.

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